A Paris appeal court will rule today at 13:30 (12:30 BST) on Marine Le Pen’s embezzlement appeal, potentially impacting her 2027 presidential election eligibility.
The leader of the Rassemblement National (RN) parliamentary group is appealing a March 2025 conviction for the embezzlement of €1.4m in European Parliament funds, a case that resulted in a five-year ban from holding public office.
Possible outcomes for the Marine Le Pen embezzlement appeal
If the appeal court upholds the original ruling, Le Pen could be barred from the ballot just as she leads national polls with only 10 months remaining before the vote.
The legal battle centers on allegations that Le Pen and 24 other defendants, including party officials and former members of the European Parliament (MEP), used European Parliament (EP) funds to pay party employees between 2004 and 2016.
Prosecutors allege these individuals were working for the party rather than performing duties as parliamentary assistants, a system described by judges in the original trial as a fake jobs scheme.
Le Pen, who served as an MEP from 2004 to 2017, has denied organizing the scam, though she admitted during appeal hearings in January and February to a “mistake” that led to certain aides working for the benefit of the party.
The Paris appeal court holds the power to effectively fire the starting pistol for the 2027 race, where the first round is scheduled for April 18 and the run-off for May 2.
While Le Pen has painted herself as a victim of a “difference in treatment,” the original 2025 verdict found her to be “at the heart” of a system established by her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen.
An outright acquittal would clear her path to the presidency, but legal observers view this result as unlikely given the previous findings that she embraced the embezzlement system with determination.
If the court finds her guilty and maintains a ban on public office exceeding two years, she will be unable to stand in 2027. This is because the clock on her five-year ban has continued to tick since it was first handed down on March 31, 2025.
However, a reduced ban of two years or less would allow her to remain a candidate. Prosecutors are currently pushing for the original five-year ban to stand, alongside a four-year jail term that would include three years suspended and one year served at home with an electronic tag.
The issue of the electronic tag remains a significant hurdle for Le Pen’s potential campaign. She has stated that it is “not possible” to run for president while wearing a tag, as a candidate must be free to hold rallies or visit markets without relying on a judge’s permission to move.
She warned at the weekend that the ruling is critical “because it could prevent our country functioning democratically.” Following the announcement, Le Pen is expected to clarify her intentions on the TF1 news channel at 20:00 tonight.
Jordan Bardella as the National Rally contingency plan
Should the court uphold the disqualification, the National Rally has already prepared a “Plan B” in the form of party chairman Jordan Bardella. The 30-year-old joined Le Pen’s team in 2017 and has led the party since 2022.
Le Pen has confirmed that while Bardella would be her prime minister if she were president, she would support him with “great energy” as a substitute candidate if she is barred from standing.
At a recent weekend gathering, first nations rights advocates often highlight the importance of stable leadership, and the RN is similarly emphasizing unity during this transition.
The prospect of a Bardella candidacy is increasingly accepted by the party’s base. Latest polls show both Le Pen and Bardella placing above 30% for the first round of the 2027 election, with Bardella currently performing marginally better than his mentor. However, political opponents have been quick to question his readiness for the role.
Conservative Republicans candidate Bruno Retailleau recently poked fun at Bardella’s age, suggesting that while voters accepted a 40-year-old president in Emmanuel Macron, they might view a 30-year-old commander-in-chief differently.
The RN continues to project a message of total unity despite the legal pressure. Bardella has reiterated his “total support” for Le Pen, committing himself to seeing her elected if the court allows it.
This disciplined front is part of a broader effort to maintain the party’s momentum, which resulted in a record 143 seats in the National Assembly during the 2024 elections.
Unlike recent instances where the All Progressives Congress faces criticism over alleged substitution of candidates, the RN’s succession plan has been publicly articulated for months to avoid administrative chaos.
Other defendants and the European Parliament fund scandal
Le Pen is not the only individual whose future rests with the Paris appeal court. Twelve of the 24 people originally found guilty in March 2025 chose to appeal their convictions. These include high-ranking party figures who were implicated in the diversion of EP funds meant for parliamentary assistants.
The original trial concluded that these funds were systematically misused to stabilize the party’s finances over a 12-year period.
Among those awaiting the appeal verdict are several notable RN officials:
- Louis Aliot: RN vice-president and mayor of Perpignan, previously sentenced to six months with an electronic tag.
- Nicolas Bay: Former secretary general of the National Front, also given a six-month term with a tag.
- Bruno Gollnisch: A veteran party figure handed a one-year term under an electronic tag.
- Catherine Griset: A former close aide to Le Pen who was barred from holding public office for two years.
- Wallerand de Saint-Just: Former party treasurer sentenced to one year with an electronic tag.
A further appeal to the Court of Cassation, France’s highest court, remains a possibility if a guilty verdict is returned today. Le Pen would have 10 days to make that decision, though she has suggested she might not pursue it as the process could take several months and hinder her ability to campaign.
Similarly, international political tensions often complicate domestic legal proceedings, and the outcome of this case will be watched closely by observers across Europe as a test for the populist movement.
The judges’ decision today represents the culmination of a decade-long investigation into the financial practices of the National Rally. Whether the court opts for a strict adherence to the 2025 ruling or a more lenient sentence, the result will fundamentally change the trajectory of the 2027 presidential race.
For Le Pen, the verdict determines whether she remains the face of the French hard-right or transitions into the role of a “mere activist” supporting a younger successor.
